Have you ever wondered howmodern weather forecast worksCan you predict the rain for the next seven days with some pretty high accuracy? Behind the temperature numbers and rain symbols that you see in the weather app, there are very complex advanced technologies and scientific processes. Understandmodern weather forecast workshelps us appreciate and use the proper weather information.
Weather Production Short History
Weather forecasts have been practiced by humans since thousands of years ago through the observations of natural signs. Our ancestors noticed the color of the sky, the behavior of animals, and the shape of clouds to predict the weather. However, scientific weather forecasts have been growing rapidly since the 19th century.
The most important cane in the history of modern weather forecasts was the telegraph development in the 1840s that allowed a real-time weather exchange. Later on, the first season-1 weather satellite launch by the U.S. in 1960 revolutionized global weather monitoring capabilities. As a result, the weather forecast accuracy has increased dramatically in recent decades.
Modern Weather Prediction Data Source
Modern weather forecasts depend on thousands of data sources collected simultaneously from all over the Earth. The more accurate and accumulated data is, the better the quality of the prediction is produced.
Weather Satellite— There are currently over 30 weather satellites orbiting the Earth and gathering data constantly. This satellite records images of clouds, ocean surface temperatures, atmospheric humidity, and wind speeds from hundreds of kilometers of altitude. Satellite data is crucial to monitor weather conditions in the oceans and remote areas that cannot be reached land weather stations.
Weather Radar— Weather radar emits microwaves that bounce off water drops and ice crystals in the clouds. From this reflection, radar systems can determine the location, intensity, and the motion of rain. Indonesia has a weather radar network run by BMKG to monitor the weather in real time throughout the nusantara.
Land Weather Station— Over 10,000 weather stations spread around the world measuring temperatures, air pressure, moisture, wind, and rainfall every hour. In Indonesia, BMKG operates over 200 meteorological stations. In addition, thousands of automated weather stations and volunteered to complete the official observation network.
Radiosonde balloons— Every day, thousands of weather balloons are launched from meteorological stations all over the world. This balloon carries instruments that measure temperatures, humidity and wind to a height of 30-40 km in the stratosphere. This vertical atmospheric profile data is crucial to weather prediction models.
Plane and Ship— Thousands of commercial flights and ships also contribute as weather observers. The ship measured the atmosphere conditions during flight, while the ship measured the ocean conditions like surface temperatures and wave height.
Weather Data Processing
Once the data is collected, the very complex processing process begins. This tray requires supercomputers at extraordinary computation speed because of the volume of data and the complexity of the calculations involved.
Data assimilation— First, all the data from various sources combined and distandarized. This process is called assimilation of data and aim to create a picture of the conditions of the global atmosphere consistent at one particular time. The data discrepancy of various sources was completed using a sophisticated statistical algorithm.
Weather Numeric Model— The data that's been assimilated is then put into numerical weather forecast. This model is a computer program that simulates atmospheric behavior using complex mathematical physics equations. The most powerful supercomputer in the world runs this model within a few hours.
Post- Processing— Output mentah dari model numerik kemudian diproses lebih lanjut untuk menghasilkan prakiraan yang mudah dipahami. Proses ini melibatkan koreksi statistik berdasarkan data historis dan penyesuaian untuk kondisi lokal seperti topografi dan pengaruh perkotaan.
Model Cuaca Global yang Digunakan
Berbagai lembaga meteorologi dunia mengembangkan model cuaca numerik mereka sendiri. Setiap model memiliki kelebihan dan kekurangan yang berbeda. Oleh karena itu, prakiraan cuaca terbaik umumnya menggabungkan output dari beberapa model sekaligus.
ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)— Diakui sebagai model cuaca global paling akurat saat ini. Berbasis di Reading, Inggris, ECMWF mengoperasikan salah satu superkomputer terbesar di dunia. Model ini secara konsisten mengalahkan model lainnya dalam kompetisi prakiraan cuaca internasional.
GFS (Global Forecast System)— Model milik NOAA Amerika Serikat yang tersedia secara gratis dan terbuka untuk publik. GFS dijalankan empat kali sehari dan menghasilkan prakiraan hingga 16 hari ke depan. Model ini digunakan sebagai basis oleh banyak layanan cuaca termasuk Cuaca.in melalui Open-Meteo.
BMKG Indonesia— Selain menggunakan model global, BMKG juga mengembangkan model regional yang lebih detail untuk wilayah Indonesia. Model regional ini menggunakan resolusi spasial yang lebih tinggi sehingga lebih akurat untuk kondisi lokal kepulauan Indonesia.
Keterbatasan Prakiraan Cuaca
Meskipun teknologi prakiraan cuaca modern sudah sangat canggih, masih terdapat keterbatasan fundamental yang tidak dapat diatasi sepenuhnya. Memahami keterbatasan ini penting agar kita tidak terlalu kecewa saat prakiraan tidak tepat.
Pertama, atmosfer adalah sistem kaotik yang sangat sensitif terhadap kondisi awal. Kesalahan kecil dalam pengukuran awal dapat berkembang menjadi perbedaan besar dalam prakiraan jangka panjang. Ini dikenal sebagai efek kupu-kupu dalam teori chaos. Akibatnya, prakiraan lebih dari 10 hari ke depan memiliki tingkat ketidakpastian yang sangat tinggi.
Kedua, resolusi spasial model masih terbatas. Model global terbaik saat ini memiliki resolusi sekitar 9–13 km, artinya kondisi cuaca dalam satu grid diperlakukan seragam. Namun, kondisi cuaca aktual bisa sangat bervariasi dalam jarak beberapa kilometer, terutama di daerah pegunungan.
Untuk mendapatkan prakiraan cuaca terbaik yang tersedia, gunakanToday's weather.Cuaca.in yang menggunakan data Open-Meteo berbasis model ECMWF dan GFS. Tersedia juga7-day forecastdengan pembaruan data setiap 30 menit.
